How we fix our renewable generating capacity targets, primarily solar and wind, is a mystery. The current target of 175 GW by 2022 was fixed in 2015 and no one seems to know how this target was arrived at. Was it fixed on the basis of any cost optimisation exercise, or does it have any connection with India’s “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” targets, is anybody’s guess. As a matter of fact. for quite sometime one was not even sure whether 175 GW was the target for incremental capacity between 2015 and 2022 or the cumulative total till 2022 ever since we started adding to renewable capacity. It took sometime to clarify that the latter is actually the case.
All projections of the government, be it long-term or medium term, assume that the target of 175GW will definitely be achieved. But now we are in the middle of 2020, it is amply clear that we are going to miss the target by a wide margin. There are some estimates that we may reach about 135 GW, that too by 2024, though even this seems unlikely given the current pandemic and possible disruption of supplies from China. Today we are about 87GW and reaching 175 by 2022 is almost impossible.
True, there had been very quick addition to generating capacity after the targets were announced in 2015. But over the last two years, the pace has gone down substantially for a variety of reasons. That being the case, there is a need to revisit our target for 2022 based on what we have been able to achieve till now. We should also revise our National Electricity Plan and the study on generation mix in 2030 since otherwise, these documents would be of little use to policy makers.
Fixing targets for renewable capacity cannot be done in isolation. There are several factors which need to work in sync when one is aiming for such a quantum jump in capacity. The first is whether we have enough standby capacity in the form of hydro or gas which can immediately be put to use, if there is a drop in generation from renewable sources due to sudden fall in wind velocity or unexpected cloud cover. Then there is the question of availability of adequate transmission links to evacuate that power.
For renewable generation, the transmission links have to be more dispersed and going well into the interiors. The difference in gestation lag of renewable generation projects vis-a-vis transmission lines is a factor which has to be kept in mind. In fact, this is one of the major reasons why investments in renewable capacity have gone down. While a solar plant can be take up to 24 months, that too if there are no impediments in land acquisition and getting ‘right of way’.
There’s little evidence to show that such a detailed planning exercise was ever conducted before fixing the renewable targets. At least, there is nothing available in the public domain. What we seem to be doing ex-post. After fixing the target, we are burning mid-night oil to see how to tackle the problem of intermittency in renewable generation.
As on date, we are managing it by backing down our coal-based plants- an extremely inefficient way which only adds to cost. Several man-hours are being spent to ascertain what is the technical minimum for a coal-based plant. Can it go down to 50% or 40% or even lower without damaging the machines? What would be the cost of retrofitting if coal based plants are operated at such low capacities? That we’re going to miss our target may be a blessing in disguise sice, otherwise, our coal plants would be in deeper stress given the fact that a quick augmentation of our hydro based plants will not be forthcoming. Gas, in any case, is not available forcing gas based plants to run at a maximum of 25% capacity.
Though we are unlikely to meet our target of 175GW by 20022, the government now proposes to set up a more ambitious target of 450 GW by 2030. One only hopes that necessary home work has been done and discussions have been held with all the stakeholders, especially the load dispatchers who are responsible for grid stability.
Matter referenced:
Somit Dasgupta, Former member of Electricity Authority, Times of India, Ahmedabad Edition, Tuesday, 14th June, 2020.
By: Dr. Bhawana Asnani.
Happy to see Reviews, Additions, Suggestions and Comments, further.
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